Owie! OOTLP (out-on-the-limb-predictions) from Election Day on Twin Cities mayoral races… two branches sawed off…

Old-time DFL Party Extinguished and Bernie is beaming!

On November 7, 2017, election day, we made out on the limb predictions on some of the Twin

Cities school board races and ventured bold choices that the voters would likely make for the Minneapolis and St. Paul mayoralty races.

First, it would almost be impossible to get the St. Paul school board elections wrong. The three endorsed candidates slaughtered the others. In the Edina schools, we said two recommended by the Senate District Republicans might make it. One did.

For Minneapolis mayor, we thought incumbent Hodges might squeak through because of her constant name recognition within the ranked-choice voting. Figuring her multitudinous opponents might split the vote enough for her to come through. We were wrong and failed to pick up on the voter dissatisfaction with her. Nor did we pick up on the massive voter move to the ultra-left.

St. Paul proved even more decisive. We’re not trying to enter deep analytics’ here, just trying to cover the very basic broad shift in the electorate. The old-line DFL-Democrat Farmer-Labor Party identity is now confirmed finished. Labor got whomped, there are few farmers in the city and the once more typical Democrat of 10-15 years ago is becoming extinct. The DFL Party in St. Paul is now really something else. Let’s call it the PC Party if one needs a descriptive term.

Pat Harris was sort of the traditional DFL candidate. He had endorsements all over the place from the newspaper, the chamber, unions and what else. He was the perfect choice for a DFL of a decade ago and would have won handily. What happened?

Mr. Harris got crushed with only 25% of the vote. How the electorate has changed. They are now the polar opposite of what they were 10-15 years ago. A little hint of this occurred a year or two ago when the Ward 2 city council contest went to a more liberal less establishment candidate in overtime. That was preceded by the adoption of the ranked-choice voting method. No party primary, just a general election free for all.

We thought Mr. Harris would have a chance if the other groups split up the vote-Black, Asian, Green. It didn’t happen. There were 13 signs for Mr. Carter, the winner, within a mile and a half of our location along the main street. Why was this so? Again, We don’t know, all we know is that there was almost a complete reversal of old-time DFL voting.

Mr. Carter beat Mr. Harris two to one on the first ballot choice and achieved a majority. Stunning. The voting population changed drastically to the socialistic, progressive left. A new normal whether one subscribes to it or not.

What does this hold for the future of St. Paul? We don’t know. We are concerned. With the great liberality, little business sense and spending discipline, we foresee a rough road ahead for home and business owners. We would welcome being proved wrong.

All is not lost. Remember Bernie loves St. Paul.

Bob Smith, 3rd
Gopher State Politics Institute
www.GopherStatePolitics.com
November 16, 2017