President Obama’s supporters congratulate him for “going big” in his opening to Cuba, restoring full diplomatic relations and proclaiming his intention to reverse a half century of failed policies.  At first look, this was indeed a bold move, not a mere loosening of a travel restriction (as Obama did when he took office in 2009). But it is a reopening of embassies, releasing of political prisoners, and paving the way for much broader economic relations in telecommunications for a start– and this all done with the help and the blessing of the Pope.  Apparently, eighteen months of secret negotiations were required.       Upon closer examination, there is less here than meets the eye.  The gains are more limited and what has actually changed is not quite what was proclaimed.  Consider, first the stated rationale for Cuba’s interest in the deal.  Raoul Castro has declared that Cuba is interested in a revival and rescue of its morbid economy, but has no intention whatsoever of changing Cuba’s one-party government.  The U.S. for its part has declared that the reopening of embassies requires that American diplomats have full rights to move about the country and speak with anybody they choose, not to be hemmed in and nor restricted in their movements as is currently the case.  This does not augur too well for a meeting of the minds anytime soon.  The first meeting of high-level officials from the two sides, which took place yesterday, January 22, in Havana, unsurprisingly it produced no quick resolution of this issue or other items discussed.
     The Cubans demanded, as conditions for further progress, the immediate lifting of the U.S. embargo against Cuba and the removal of their country from the State Department’s list of countries engaged in terrorism.   The first condition of course cannot be met by unilateral action, but requires action by Congress.  The claimed diplomatic advantage of the Cuban opening within the hemisphere is thus easily negated.  Those who are reflexively anti-American can and surely will declare that Obama’s opening to Cuba is phony because it is meaningless unless accompanied by the immediate lifting of the embargo.  Gaining Congressional support was not made easier by the fact that Obama did not include any Republicans in his secret negotiations, (he did phone Senator Menendez to “inform” him of the pending action but at the eleventh hour and did not even pretend to solicit advice from the Senator or any other Congressional Republican).  
     On the matter of Cuba’s removal from the terror list, the President, for all of the proposed boldness of his move, took no position, suggesting that he would seek a “recommendation” from the State Department and act accordingly.  Removal from the terror list is critically important from Cuba’s point of view because U.S. banks are chary of dealing with any country or bank that has even the remotest connection to terrorist financing.  
     The lifting of the embargo is a very complicated matter.  Before Congress can even consider lifting the embargo, a whole host of statutory requirements must be met relating to human rights, fulfillment of various claims, changes in political representation, plus additional other matters.  On top of this, there is a backlog of unresolved disputes relating to the seizure of properties and assets by Cuba from American investors following Fidel Castro’s seizure of power from the corrupt ancient regime of Fulgencio Batista.  Experience suggests that such disputes usually take years to resolve after protracted litigation and or arbitration.  So if you had any idea of rushing down to your neighborhood tobacco store for Cuban cigars or calling your travel agent for a quick flight to Havana, you can forget about it.  There is a way you can sign up for one of the twelve or so categories of cultural and educational exchange, a process which has been made easier to navigate and the categories have been broadened to expand travel by Americans.  But these are incremental gains and will mostly mean only a modest increase in tourism.
     Another long-term issue likely to emerge in future negotiations is the question of the American Gitmo base.  Some Americans believe that the base has no strategic significance anymore, but this is by no means a universal view and raising the issue would certainly complicate negotiations with the Cubans and inflame political passions here at home.
     All of this suggests that it will be difficult for American firms to operate freely in Cuba anytime soon and that diplomatic relations will move forward only slowly and with many bumps along the road.  There is also a danger that, if official relations are complicated and progress is slow, the shadow network of illicit money and criminal activity which bedeviled Cuban-American relations in the old days will return with a vengeance.  Collaboration between law enforcement might be a desirable first step in building toward a secure long-term diplomatic opening with Cuba.