…Right on with the DFL …missed it on the GOP side
Back before the August 14 primaries, we picked up on an alleged intra-party DFL attack mailing on Mr. Walz. The mailing pointed out that he had missed 60% of Congressional votes and that we didn’t need a 40% Governor. That gave us the opening to do a tongue-in-cheek prediction that Mr. Walz would be the 40% nominee, but not for the reasons implied in the attack mailing.
We figured that Ms. Murphy and Ms. Swanson might split the vote. If each received about 30% that would leave Mr. Walz with a good chance of picking up 40% of the primary vote. Low, and behold, the two picked off about 56% of the vote leaving Mr. Walz with 42%. Now, Mr. Walz has a good shot at becoming the 42% Governor.
We missed on the Republican side. Even the DFL attack ads focused on Mr. Pawlenty walking away with the nomination. The moneyed pros put their bets on Mr. Pawlenty. It was almost a foregone conclusion that Mr. Pawlenty would sweep into office. It was inevitable. Oh, oh! What happened?
Mr. Johnson came through with a little over half the GOP votes. Is this a repeat Goldwater phenomenon or for real? Have Republican voters outside the party right base come around to a more conservative view? The Democrats here in the Twin Cities have shifted from the traditional DFL to a socialistic leftist posture witness the recent St. Paul mayoral election. The traditional DFLer was a fine person with a good record and background but he only garnered 25% of the vote. Has this same shift occurred in the Republican Party only to a stronger rightist position? Maybe so. His adviser’s clearly missed that turn in the electorate as did we also.
It appears that Mr. Pawlenty’s advisers were too cautious on spending any primary monies. Mr. Pawlenty’s lack of enthusiasm and support for Mr. Trump’s policies also painted him as a non-loyalist. He and his advisers, we believe succumbed to the Democrat anti-Trump fervor, whereas the party voters hadn’t.
Nevertheless, it could be an interesting contest. Mr. Johnson’s luck seems to be changing favorably. The Ellison factor might add a dimension. The economy is moving and the mining issue might help him in C8.
On to November…
Bob Smith 3rd
Gopher State Politics Institute
GopherStatetPolitics.com
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