November 2, 2015

St. Paul City Elections…   Ward 2 Predictions

Here goes pure speculation and guesswork on the Ward 2 council seat.

St. Paul is a DFL town, Ward 2 is strong DFL.   The power, influence, money and manpower are with the candidates claiming DFL status. The question is as usual, what the faithful turnout will be.   Did the parking meter flap antagonize some of the upper ward liberal base?

Our Gopher State Politics Institute sense is that the first ballot voting will go something like this:

Rebecca   39%
Darren     35
Bill            14
Sharon      7
Michael    4
Pat             1

Rebecca generally has the edge.   If she goes over 40% on the first choice, she’s probably has a lock on the contest.  Her strength-we believe-is on the first ballot. If Darren can stay within five points on the first ballot, he may have an opportunity to take over on the third.  If Bill pulls more than 20%, this will cause fun between the leaders.

We could be way wrong.   Darren has seemed to have run a smoother, more traditional, more efficient campaign.  The question becomes whether he can cut into the upper W2 base that we believe leans toward Rebecca.

That’s our take.   Reality will prove how far off we are.