Here is our latest OOTLP (Out on the Limb Prediction).

Trump December 15 Business Empire Decision

Much has been made of what will the President-elect decide to do with his business holdings.  All sorts of legal and other views have been offered in the media as to how best to handle the divesting of the holdings.  Blind trusts are a favorite.  What do we think he might do?

In one sentence, we believe he will sell the businesses equally to his four children and place whatever proceeds emerge into some sort of blind trust or trusts.

Many factors will come into play.  Complexities abound.  There’s something like a hundred and a quarter holdings and 18 countries involved for starters.  How will the children finance the purchases?  Can fair market valuations be established?  Can arm’s length transactions occur?  What about tax rulings domestically and internationally?  Will the structure of some of the holdings allow for transfer of ownership?   How long could it take to unwind the business arrangements and complete the sales-two years or more?

We think on December 15^th that he will announce he is immediately giving up complete control of his holdings and that he has authorized the sale of most everything to the children.  The few exclusions might be what we would consider residences-Trump Tower, the Florida vacation property and perhaps some other “homes” that he uses in his travels.

There you have it.  We could go on forever with details and questions.  He has little choice but to give up control and ownership of the business holdings.  Moreover, we believe these transactions will be taking place in a strictly ethical manner as they will be subjected to unmerciful scrutiny by supporters and critics alike.