November 7, 2017

Let’s start with Minneapolis mayor. Ranked-choice voting ought to favor the incumbent. She may not get the majority needed on the first ballot but she will prevail down the line. That’s a guess of course but we think a likely outcome.

Edina school board should be interesting. A little bit of a tussle going on there. The Republicans have come out with a favored list that should help in winnowing down the candidates. Our guess is that two of those mentioned will make it.

St. Paul school board is a done deal. The three DFL backed candidates are a shoo-in. The voters there will be concentrating on the mayoralty election.

In some ways, the St. Paul mayor race is the most fun one. Quite a variety of candidates. The establishment one, Pat Harris, should prevail. He may fall short of the majority needed on the first choice ballot. He appears to be spending the most and has a large number of volunteers. Name recognition from all his mailings will help him on the down choices balloting.

That contest was roughed up by a gun controversy. Whether it will cost votes is unclear. We think one of the most interesting factors in trying to predict a St. Paul election is the increasing number of what we might describe as liberal flakes over the past five, six or so years. This creates difficulties in estimating the voter directions. The old-line DFLers don’t seem to have the control and clout they once had within the party. The newer even more liberal and progressive Democrats appear to be taking over when it comes to the vote.

The diversity in the St. Paul mayoralty contest should split the vote favoring Harris. The tally of the first choice votes could be an indicator of future St. Paul elections. Voter turnout will be so-so. Those who are thinking ranked-choice voting is an incentive to vote are off the track.

Watch your ten o’clock news for results.

Bob Smith 3rd
Gopher State Politics Institute
www.GopherStatePolitics.com