Wild Guesses as to the South Carolina Republican Primary…

Here goes a shot as to the outcome of the Republican Presidential Primary in South Carolina.  We wanted to get this out before the Fox Poll is released Thursday, February 18, that takes into account the effect of the big debate.

We believe, we may have understated the Trump support and overstated the Cruz tally. Trump has been doing a good job of smearing Cruz and others.  Will it hurt their vote?  We don’t know but let’s throw some figures into the fray:

Trump         29%

Cruz             24%

Rubio           17%

Bush            14%

Kasich          14%

Carson           2%

Trump is probably polling at about 36%.  We think his attacks on the others, may pull his numbers down to about 29%.  Bush’s single digit numbers will likely improve with the help of W.  Rubio may fare a little better, though everything is a toss-up.  Kasich is the sleeper who might add a few to his column.  Carson is lovable but, just doesn’t have the power to move up much.  The obvious Republican problem is that they have too many equally, well-qualified candidates. If the field isn’t narrowed quickly, the selection will be handed to a 30% Trump with the likelihood of a brokered convention.

All this is speculative and the numbers may well be jumbled in tomorrow’s poll and we don’t know what will happen in the days before the actual vote.  Expect most anything and watch for surprises.  Will that primary change the dynamics of the Minnesota March 1 caucus?

We’ll get back to you in a day or so with our thoughts on the outcomes of the Fox post-debate poll.